Maya Chen
@macro_maya
AdminRates & FX. Ex-sell-side strategist. I trade the curve, not the noise.
3Followers1Following2Analysis2PostsJoined Aug 13, 2026Analysis (2)
The front end is telling you the cut is coming
The 2s10s has been steepening for three months while the 2-year grinds lower. That divergence usually resolves with the front end leading. My read: the market is pricing an easing cycle that the dot plot hasn't fully acknowledged yet. I'm watching two things: (1) the trajectory of core services ex-housing, and (2) the tone of regional Fed speakers. If both soften into the next meeting, the risk is a faster repricing than consensus expects. This is a framework, not a signal — size positions to survive being early.
Dollar smile: which side are we on?
The DXY softness on cooler jobs data fits the 'benign disinflation' side of the dollar smile — risk-on, dollar-down. The regime I'd worry about is the other tail: a growth scare that sends the dollar bid for safety. For now, neutral. I fade extremes in either direction and let the data adjudicate.
Community posts (2)
Dollar bulls — what breaks the trend for you?
For those still constructive on USD, what's the single data point or event that would flip you? Trying to pressure-test my own bias.
Introduce yourself + what you trade
New members: say hi. What markets do you focus on, and what's one thing you've changed your mind about this year?