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US 10Y Yield4.637-0.96%Gold4,432.2-0.79%BTC63,631.89+0.35%DXY99.896-0.12%KOSPI6,813.34+3.56%US 2Y Yield3.961-4.09%S&P 5007,803.31+0.71%
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Macro

Central banks, inflation, growth and the big-picture forces moving all assets.

US 2Y Yield3.961-4.09%

News

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Macro2h ago

Fed holds rates steady, signals patience as inflation cools

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged and struck a measured tone, saying it needs 'greater confidence' that disinflation is durable before easing.

Reuters
3
Macro3d ago

Global growth forecasts nudged higher on resilient consumption

A closely watched institution lifted its world GDP projection modestly, citing resilient household spending across major economies.

Financial Times
0

Analysis

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▲BullishMacro1h ago

The front end is telling you the cut is coming

The 2s10s has been steepening for three months while the 2-year grinds lower. That divergence usually resolves with the front end leading. My read: the market is pricing an easing cycle that the dot plot hasn't fully acknowledged yet. I'm watching two things: (1) the trajectory of core services ex-housing, and (2) the tone of regional Fed speakers. If both soften into the next meeting, the risk is a faster repricing than consensus expects. This is a framework, not a signal — size positions to survive being early.

MC@macro_maya
472