The front end is telling you the cut is coming

The 2s10s has been steepening for three months while the 2-year grinds lower. That divergence usually resolves with the front end leading. My read: the market is pricing an easing cycle that the dot plot hasn't fully acknowledged yet. I'm watching two things: (1) the trajectory of core services ex-housing, and (2) the tone of regional Fed speakers. If both soften into the next meeting, the risk is a faster repricing than consensus expects. This is a framework, not a signal — size positions to survive being early.