Crypto

Bitcoin: strong hands, thin float — but mind the leverage

Exchange balances keep bleeding lower and long-term holder supply is near records. That's a constructive backdrop. The risk isn't spot demand — it's derivatives. Funding has crept up and open interest is elevated. My base case is grind-higher with sharp, leverage-driven flushes along the way. Neutral-to-constructive, but I respect the downside air pockets.